Monday, June 27, 2016

Gary Johnson Could Officially be on the Ballot in Every State

News is coming in from across the country reporting Gary on the ballot officially. Vermont and Illinois are among those verifying his slot. Johnson himself has come forward to state he will be on the ballot in all 50 states.

So what does this mean for those of us backing the LP ticket this year? It's been said in the past that if Gary can win his home state of New Mexico that he has a chance at the presidency. Emerging polls indicate that Johnson could not only win electoral votes (something that independent candidate Ross Perot never achieved, despite winning nearly 19% of the popular vote in 1992), but could also—in admittedly extraordinary, but nonetheless possible, circumstances—win the presidency itself.

Some may scoff at this idea since even 12% in the latest Fox News poll seems a long way from victory, and it is. But naysayers are forgetting that Johnson’s target isn’t 50% plus one, as is the case in most two-way races. Trump and Clinton are polling in the 20’s and 30’s when respondents are specifically offered Johnson as an alternative, meaning he could win a state with as little as 34% of the vote, or thereabouts.

Johnson is polling especially well in Utah, one of the few states to show us more localized results. The 1,519 registered voters were first asked about Trump and Clinton, as well as a generic “other” option. 36% chose Trump, 29% Clinton, and 35% other. That alone is promising; considering the 2.5% margin of error, “other” could win Utah. But when respondents were offered Gary Johnson in addition to “other,” support for Trump and Clinton dropped to 29% and 26%, respectively, 16% chose Johnson, and 29% other, for a total of 45% who claim they’d vote for someone other than Trump or Clinton today. Even assuming that some will grudgingly vote for them when push comes to shove, these are the kind of numbers that could precede a third-party victory, particularly considering the possibility that Mitt Romney might endorse Johnson.

If Utah’s six electoral votes go to Gary, that alone could deprive both Trump and Clinton of the 270 required to win outright, though, of course, that would depend on the outcome in swing states. If he managed to win a couple of other states—even states with few electoral votes, like New Mexico (his home state) and Nevada—a House election would be much more likely.

In which case, the vote would go to the House. You might jump to the conclusion that the conservative/republican House would vote Donald Trump, the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party. However, considering how many Republican insiders already want to dump Trump, as well as the certainty that he will continue to anger and embarrass them between now and November, it’s entirely possible that a two-term Republican governor will be their first choice by then. Factor in the possibility of Clinton being indicted or rocked by some new scandal, and the notion that a majority could back Johnson doesn’t seem as ridiculous as it might have had he faced different opponents.

So, if Johnson/Weld hasn't been announced as "officially" on the ballot in your state, keep fighting, you can turn the tide. He may be the "underdog" but he's no fringe candidate.

Let's get him in the debates and on the ballot.

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